Map the four big product risks before you build

The Four Risks That Kill Product Bets Before Launch

Marty Cagan's four big risks — value, usability, feasibility, business viability — frame the vast majority of product failures. His product discovery work argues that shipping-stage failures almost always trace to a specific risk the team either skipped or deferred. The prompt treats discovery as a triage function: the risks with low confidence are the ones that must be tested in the first two weeks, not the risks the team is most comfortable discussing.

How the Map the four big product risks before you build Prompt Works

The prompt forces an explicit confidence level per risk and a pass/fail threshold per test, then sequences the cheapest tests first so budget is not consumed on feasibility spikes when the real risk is value. The business viability column — the one PMs most often skip — is a common source of launch-time surprises.

When to Use It

• A significant bet is about to enter engineering and discovery feels thin.
• The last three launches missed their targets and nobody can name the specific failed risk.
• A new head of product wants a discipline reset on how bets get approved.
• You need a defensible "no-go" recommendation on a politically loaded bet.
• Engineering is asking for clearer go/no-go criteria.

Common Pitfalls

• Skipping value risk when the team is excited. Team excitement is not evidence that customers will use this. Talk to customers.
• Doing feasibility first. Feasibility spikes are the most expensive test. Run value and usability first, cheaper.
• No pass/fail threshold. Without a pre-committed threshold, any test result becomes ambiguous and the team ships anyway.

Sources

• The Four Big Risks — Silicon Valley Product Group
• Product Discovery — Silicon Valley Product Group
• Product Discovery Techniques — Silicon Valley Product Group
• Good Product Team / Bad Product Team — Silicon Valley Product Group