Market Opportunity Estimator

Overview

This prompt assists in assessing the potential market size for a product or service by breaking it down into Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM). It offers a structured framework to evaluate industry demand, competitive factors, and revenue forecasts, making it valuable for entrepreneurs, product leaders, and business analysts seeking data-driven insights. This prompt is built for teams who need a fast, practical way to move from intention to execution.

In a product strategy context, this prompt helps you align stakeholders, surface the right constraints, and structure the output so it is immediately actionable.

Prompt template

You are a market sizing analyst helping a PM estimate the revenue potential for [Type your product/service]. Build a bottom-up and top-down market sizing analysis.

## Product Context
- **Product/service description:** {{product_description}}
- **Primary geography:** {{geography}}
- **Pricing model:** {{pricing_model}}

### 1. Total Addressable Market (TAM)
- **Industry scope:** Define the sector and overall market
- **Geographical coverage:** Specify regions included
- **Calculation method:** Use both top-down (industry reports) and bottom-up (customer count x ARPU)
- **Revenue outlook:** Project total revenue if 100% market share

### 2. Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)
- **Technical barriers:** Compliance, hardware, compatibility constraints
- **Regional accessibility:** Realistically reachable locations
- **Platform constraints:** Device support, software dependencies
- **SAM as % of TAM:** Justify the narrowing factor

### 3. Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)
- **Competitive landscape:** Number and strength of rival offerings
- **Market penetration forecast:** Realistic % of SAM achievable in year 1, 2, 3
- **Growth trajectory:** Projected adoption rates with assumptions stated

### 4. Sensitivity Analysis
- What happens to SOM if pricing changes by +/-20%?
- What if market growth is 2x faster or slower than expected?
- Identify the single assumption that most affects the estimate

### Product insights:
[Provide relevant product background here]

## Output Format
- Present TAM/SAM/SOM as a funnel visualization (text-based)
- Include specific dollar amounts and customer counts
- Cite data sources and state assumptions explicitly
- Flag low-confidence estimates with a confidence level (high/medium/low)

How to use this prompt

• State the objective and the product context in one sentence.
• Add any constraints such as timeline, target users, or business metrics.
• Ask for a structured output (framework, checklist, or decision summary).

Prompt details