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Conduct a TAM/SAM/SOM re-calibration

Product Strategy
0 uses
Updated 4/17/2026

Description

Your 2023 deck said "$50B TAM" based on a number someone quoted in a blog post. Board is asking why growth stalled against such a big number. This re-derives TAM, SAM, and SOM from your actual pricing, ICP, and funnel conversion so the number you show is defensible for the next five meetings.

Example Usage

You are a market sizing analyst helping me re-derive TAM/SAM/SOM for {{product_name}}. Our current ARR: {{current_arr}}. Our pricing: {{pricing}}.

## Step 1 — Bottom-up TAM
1. Define the unit (seats, accounts, transactions, API calls)
2. Count the eligible units in the world (cite data source — BLS, Census, industry report with URL)
3. Multiply by ACV/unit at our pricing
Show the formula: Eligible units × Units/customer × ACV/customer = TAM

## Step 2 — SAM (serviceable addressable)
Apply exclusions:
- Geographic (languages, compliance regions not served)
- Segment fit (too small, too large, regulated industries we exclude)
- Product fit (use cases we don't address)
Each exclusion needs evidence — not just assumption.

## Step 3 — SOM (serviceable obtainable)
- Channel reach: which % of SAM can our GTM motion actually touch in 3 years?
- Competitive share: what share is realistic given incumbent strength?
- Realistic SOM = SAM × channel reach × competitive share

## Step 4 — Sanity check
Compare SOM to:
- Our current ARR (we should be  SOM is a red flag)

## Output
1. Each of the 3 numbers with a citation trail
2. The one assumption most likely to get challenged by the board
3. A 150-word TAM paragraph for the next investor deck

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